Strait of Hormuz and Selective Access: Is This the New Normal for Tankers?
The Strait of Hormuz has operated under a selective access regime for over a month, and a growing number of shipping analysts are asking whether this arrangement — where Iran effectively determines which vessels pass and which do not — could become a permanent feature of global tanker trade. Clarksons Research, BIMCO, and multiple independent analysts have all acknowledged that even if diplomatic efforts succeed, the precedent of state-controlled selective access may have lasting effects on how tanker operators, charterers, and terminal operators conduct business.
The selective access regime at Hormuz is reshaping tanker trade patterns in ways that extend far beyond the immediate crisis. Flag state composition, ownership structures, chartering practices, and insurance arrangements are all adapting to a world where access to the world's most important oil chokepoint is no longer guaranteed.
How Does Selective Access Work in Practice?
Iran's IRGCN has not published formal criteria for which vessels receive transit clearance. Instead, access appears to be determined by a combination of factors: flag state, beneficial ownership nationality, cargo destination, and the existence of bilateral understandings between the vessel's associated state and Iran.
In practice, this has created a three-tier system. Chinese, Indian, and Gulf-state flagged vessels transit with relative ease. Vessels from nations with neutral diplomatic standing — such as some Southeast Asian and African flag states — can sometimes transit but with less predictability. Western-allied flagged vessels, particularly those linked to the US, UK, and EU, face the highest barriers and are largely absent from successful transits.
Clarksons data for the first week of April 2026 shows that Chinese and Indian-flagged or operated vessels account for approximately 55% of all Hormuz tanker transits, compared to a pre-crisis share of approximately 20%.
What Does This Mean for the Tanker Market?
Two-tier charter rates. Tankers capable of Hormuz transit command a premium over those that must route via the Cape of Good Hope. Clarksons reports that VLCC time charter rates for Hormuz-capable vessels are approximately $85,000 per day, versus $65,000 for Cape-routing vessels. This $20,000 per day differential reflects the commercial value of strait access.
Flag shopping. Some tanker owners are reportedly exploring flag changes to improve their vessels' transit prospects. Moving registration from a Western-allied flag to a neutral or China-aligned flag could unlock Hormuz access, but carries risks related to regulatory standards, insurance requirements, and reputational concerns. BIMCO has cautioned against flag changes motivated solely by transit access, noting potential complications with classification societies and port state control.
Cargo allocation shifts. Charterers who need Gulf-origin crude are increasingly directing cargo to operators with Hormuz-capable tonnage, concentrating market share among Chinese and Indian shipping companies. Western tanker operators are being pushed toward non-Gulf crude trades, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape.
Is Selective Access Sustainable?
The IMO and major maritime law scholars argue that selective access is incompatible with UNCLOS Article 38, which guarantees all ships the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation. However, legal arguments have not changed the operational reality on the water. Iran has demonstrated the practical ability to enforce selective access, and no international actor has challenged that enforcement with sufficient force to change the dynamic.
What Should Terminal Operators Prepare For?
If selective access becomes the new normal, terminal operators should expect sustained changes in the composition of tanker traffic. Gulf-origin crude arriving at Asian terminals will increasingly arrive on Chinese and Indian-operated tonnage. European terminals, which historically received significant volumes via Western-operated tankers through Hormuz and Suez, will see more Cape-routing cargoes on a wider variety of vessels.
Pre-arrival screening protocols should be calibrated for this new vessel mix. Operators and flag states that were rarely encountered at certain terminals may become regular callers, requiring updated risk profiles and compliance databases.
What Are the Long-Term Trade Implications?
Selective access at Hormuz could accelerate the fragmentation of global tanker trade into geopolitical blocs, with Chinese and Indian-aligned fleets serving Gulf export routes and Western-aligned fleets concentrating on Atlantic basin and Americas trades. This fragmentation would have profound implications for charter markets, insurance pricing, and the role of international maritime law.
Conclusion
The selective access regime at Hormuz is no longer a crisis measure — it is becoming a structural feature of global tanker trade. Whether it persists permanently depends on diplomatic outcomes that remain uncertain. Terminal operators and shipping companies that prepare for a prolonged period of selective access will be better positioned than those who assume a return to the pre-crisis status quo.