Strait of Hormuz Traffic Ticks Up But Iran Retains Control: What Ports Should Expect
Strait of Hormuz traffic is showing the first signs of recovery after weeks of near-total commercial shutdown, but the fundamental dynamic has not changed: Iran retains effective control over which vessels pass and under what conditions. For port operators and terminal security teams worldwide, this partial reopening creates a new set of challenges that may be harder to manage than the full closure.
According to vessel tracking data compiled by Clarksons Research, daily transits through the strait rose from fewer than 10 commercial movements in mid-March to approximately 35 per day in the first week of April 2026. That figure remains well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 80 transits per day, but it represents a meaningful change in traffic patterns that downstream ports need to account for.
Why Iran's Control Matters for Port Operations
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) has established what amounts to a permitting regime for strait transits. Vessels seeking passage must communicate intentions via designated VHF channels and, in some cases, accept Iranian naval escorts through the Traffic Separation Scheme. UKMTO advisories issued in late March confirmed that compliant vessels — primarily those carrying non-sanctioned cargo under flags with no active disputes with Tehran — have been allowed to pass.
This selective access model means that the vessels arriving at destination ports carry a different risk profile than pre-crisis traffic. Flag state composition has shifted, with Chinese, Indian, and Emirati-flagged vessels overrepresented in successful transits. Vessels that previously transited under European or Japanese flags are largely absent.
What Has Changed for Terminal Operators
Cargo scheduling has become unpredictable. Vessels that received Iranian clearance may arrive days ahead of or behind their original ETA, depending on wait times at anchorage in the Gulf of Oman. Terminal planners who rely on fixed berth windows are finding that flexibility is no longer optional.
Pre-arrival risk screening requires deeper analysis. BIMCO has issued updated guidance recommending that charterers and terminal operators verify not only standard vessel documentation but also the circumstances of each Hormuz transit. Did the vessel comply with Iranian communication protocols? Was an escort provided? Were there any deviations from the declared route within Iranian territorial waters? These questions matter for sanctions compliance and insurance validity.
Insurance coverage varies by transit circumstances. The US $40 billion insurance backstop covers vessels that transit under specific conditions, but not all transits qualify. Terminal operators receiving cargo from Hormuz-transiting vessels should confirm that war risk coverage remains valid for the specific voyage, particularly if the vessel deviated from the backstop's qualifying criteria.
How Should Ports Prepare for Incremental Reopening?
The most likely scenario, according to Clarksons and multiple shipping analysts, is a gradual increase in traffic rather than a sudden return to normal volumes. This means ports will experience a prolonged period of irregular scheduling, mixed vessel populations, and elevated compliance requirements.
Security teams should update facility security assessments to reflect the current transit regime. The ISPS Code requires that security plans account for changes in the threat environment, and a strait controlled by a state actor imposing ad hoc transit conditions qualifies as a material change.
What Are the Key Commodities Moving?
Early transit data shows crude oil tankers leading the recovery, followed by LPG carriers and a small number of chemical tankers. LNG carriers remain largely absent, with Qatar Energy continuing to route most cargoes via alternative paths. Dry bulk and container traffic through Hormuz remains minimal.
What Happens If Iran Tightens Controls Again?
The IMO Secretary-General has publicly warned that the current arrangement is fragile. Any escalation — whether from military action, failed diplomatic talks, or a maritime incident — could return traffic to zero within hours. Port operators should maintain contingency plans for both scenarios: continued gradual reopening and sudden re-closure.
Conclusion
The Strait of Hormuz traffic increase is a cautiously positive signal, but it does not represent a return to normalcy. Iran's retained control over transit conditions means that every vessel arriving from the Gulf carries questions that terminal operators must answer before accepting cargo. The ports that manage this transition best will be those that invested in real-time vessel tracking, automated risk screening, and flexible berth planning before the crisis began.